SHANGHAI—Trade wonks and policy makers got a new data point to help assess the state of global trade, and the first reading wasn’t encouraging.
On Friday, the World Trade Organization launched a quarterly indicator on the sidelines of a Group of 20 Trade Ministers’ meeting designed to forecast world trade volumes three to four months in advance. Given repeated downgrading over recent quarters of the global economic and trade outlook, the World Trade Outlook Indicator started its existence pointing down.
The initial reading of 99.0 for the gauge for the third quarter suggests a modest weakening of global trade volumes ahead, given the 100 level separating expansion from contraction.
The 164-member WTO said the indicator is potentially useful for government planners looking to craft economic policy, as well as individuals, investors and industries involved in exports. These potentially include global delivery services such as FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc. and Deutsche Post AG’s DHL Express unit, as well as international shipping companies such as Maersk Line, part of A.P. Moller-Maersk Group, and the China Ocean Shipping Co.
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